A text of Charles Hudon
February was generally allows a majority Chinese take vacations. Workers enjoy a week off to celebrate the new year, while students sit for about 5 weeks until the start of spring semester. It is not difficult to imagine that the second month of the year usually becomes migratory period. For foreign students, the situation is the same. This year I used my winter vacation to get to Nepal, where the intellectual legacy of Mao Zedong has a considerable influence, having no equal in any other region. The Nepalese Maoists
who left office there only 10 months I expect to see clear signs of Nepal "Sinis". Barely off the plane, I realized that the ideological affinities that could potentially bring the largest party in the Consultative Assembly of Nepal and China were facing featherweight figure all that represents the Indian giant Nepal. Indeed, the cultural and historical ties between these two neighbors since time immemorial, coupled with significant and regular human contact as well as relations economic flourishing, give Nepal airs real Indian suburb.
The regional picture moving rapidly in Asia, there are indications that this situation could be expected to change in years to come. Smaller battles can sometimes be decisive in a global strategy, China is now placing increasing attention to its Himalayan neighbor. Although its significance in terms of production, technological development and potential as an export market is limited, its location gives importance to Nepal geopolitics that China can no longer afford to ignore.
Watch south
With the coming to power of Deng Xiaoping in 1979, China finally abandoned its expansionist aims. Potential threat, China began a process that aims to cultivate harmonious relations and economic policy with its Asian neighbors to strengthen its position as a regional power. In Southeast Asia, China enter the pretensions, however, conflict with those of another regional superpower: India. Affinities both historical and geographical, cultural, linguistic, ethnic and social and even family ties bind the region to India, which grants him an edge in this struggle for influence. This reality has forced China to establish a policy of "Looking South", which is primarily intended as a response to the policy of "Looking East" of India. With this, China has broadened its presence in countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, but the work still to do considerable.
Nepal is a key variable in China's overall strategy in South Asia. It aims, among others, build ties with India's immediate neighbors in order to marginalize its influence. The particular geographical location of Nepal to take the Chinese strategists want him to play a passage to unify China in South Asia. In addition to opening a road that would allow it to increase its strategic presence in what is regarded by India as its traditional sphere of influence, a greater presence in Nepal would allow China to capitalize on the hydropower potential of Nepal sleeping , valued at 83.000 megawatts. The 5
Fingers
few short years after the Communist victory in China, Mao Zedong put forward the policy of the five fingers of the hand. It stressed the importance of play in Bhutan, Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and in Nepal as a buffer between India and China. Nearly 60 years later, we find that the vast majority of these "fingers" were amputated by India. Since the Tibetan riots of 2008, China resumed consciousness of the importance of "finger" of Nepal. With a population of Tibetan refugees amounting to more than 20 000 people Beijing seeks to ensure that the government cooperates and works to ensure that Nepal does not become a base of operations in activities "anti-Chinese." Beijing now sees the stability of Nepal as a key to stability in West China.
strategy: the Chinese model
In order to achieve its goals, China is taking drastic measures. Faithful to the habits developed in Africa, she literally runs the red carpet and treats Nepal like no other superpower had done before. In order to strengthen its relations with Nepal, China has established a four-pronged strategy aimed at:
1) To accommodate the concerns of Nepal;
2) To strengthen economic cooperation based on principles "win-win"
3) To stimulate contacts and cultural exchanges between the two peoples;
4) To strengthen cooperation between China and Nepal on the regional and international scene. To attract
Nepal, China plays the card of "soft power" with gusto. Since 2005, the Chinese Embassy in Nepal opened the "Nepal-China Mutual Cooperation Society, an organization whose objective is to strengthen Diplomatic relations between the two countries while spreading an image of a China "friendly" as opposed to an India "hegemonic". The establishment of a large network of Centres for Chinese Studies centers fully funded by Beijing and dedicated to the promotion of Sino-Nepalese, wants another link in this strategy "blow of heart". Another prime example, the radio station "Radio China International, which recently launched an FM station based in Kathmandu with a mission to" bring China Nepal. This component rather
Dynamics of China's strategy contrasts sharply with the passive attitude of India, due to similarities in culture and traditions, has often taken for granted Nepal. The result is that the balance now increasingly in favor of China in the Nepalese public opinion perceives wrongly or rightly, as a cooperative power well intentioned.
Recognizing the limitations of a "soft power" that would be accompanied by concrete commitments, China has been extending economic assistance projects, loans at favorable rates, infrastructure development and providing for exemptions from tariffs to a range of Nepalese products. Projects that received most attention are undoubtedly those of highway linking Lhasa to Khasa, a town 80 km from Kathmandu, as well as extension of the Lhasa railway / Golmud to the Nepalese border.
Apart from his involvement economically, the interest that China brings to its neighbor can also be seen from a military standpoint. In September 2008, for example, China announced the disbursement of military aid worth $ 1.3 million in Nepal, the first of its kind granted to the new Maoist government. Then in December, it promised to release $ 2.6 million in additional assistance related to security sector in Nepal.
Back to the Future?
This strategy seems to place China in a good position in Nepal, which now has the wind in your sails. Aware that a favorable breeze can quickly turn into a storm, a good browser, however, must always be careful that the wind gets up. Could it be that China is walking into a minefield? Road construction, military assistance ... it reminds us not he something?
We are in 1988. Nepal just to acquire a large amount of Chinese weapons. A few weeks later, China is advancing its plan to build roads designed to connect China to Nepal. It does not take more that India feels threatened and reacts. In retaliation, she lifts a trade embargo against Nepal, putting his neighbor state of siege. The economic consequences of this are huge commercial block. Shortages of fuel, salt, vegetable oil and food are soon felt. The tourism industry enters a recession. Private gas for heating, the Nepalese are forced to look to forest resources already threatened, causing extensive environmental damage. Caught by the throat, Nepal retracts. The small country several grants trading privileges in India and calls on China to withhold delivery of weapons.
What lesson has China learned from this experience? The past is often a guarantee of future we are right to think that India will not look at the recent China-Nepal approximation without doing anything.
The way the Maoist government was forced to abandon power suggests that India has already begun to react. While the Maoists formed the government, China had openly displayed his support for the project in Nepal to sack the head of the national army in order to integrate the Maoist army with it. India, itself struggling with a Maoist guerrillas in the north-east of his country, naturally saw a dim view of the "maoïsation" of the Nepalese Army. His fears led it to do everything in his power to prevent the implementation of this project, with the result that we know. Some weeks later, the failure of the Nepalese Prime Minister on this issue compelled the Maoists from power. Although the national press has presented the event as a purely national crisis, the episode should definitely be seen as an Indian victory in the standoff between the Nepalese in Beijing. With a newfound confidence, China does not seem to have left rather intimidating and continues its momentum.
Who will win the facing Sino-Indian Nepal? Hard to say, but the most likely option remains the Nepal. If he manages to play his cards well by swinging its relations with the two giants that surround it, Nepal should benefit greatly from the current situation. With a quarter of its population living below the poverty line, unemployment rates exceeding 46% and inflation rising at a rate of 13% annually, is the least we can wish him.
Charles Hudon
In Katmandu
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