China, ASEAN, East Asia: changing times ... An analysis of Charles Hudon
"The establishment of the ASEAN wants a disguised form of military encirclement ... the fruit most lamentable of imperialism anti-Chinese ".
People's Daily August 12, 1967 Just over two weeks after the arrival of the new year, nothing had changed in southern China. The price of a kilo of oranges still hovered around 3 RMB (about 50 cents) a kilo of tomatoes is always sold about 4 RMB ... Everything seemed normal, merchants do not seem particularly concerned. Even if they had been, would it really change anything?
The January 1, 2010 marked the entry into force of a wide free trade zone uniting China from now to the ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The agreement would allow China to further secure its access to natural resources of this region while facilitating the export of its manufacturing. In the southern provinces by cons, there are concerns about impacts that, in the short term, the creation of this new zone on the local economy. Facilitating the import of agricultural products from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Burma, the agreement may have adverse effects on small producers, which still represent a significant proportion of the total population in provinces like Yunnan and Guangxi.
The agreement has already been amply covered, it will not matter here in detail the length and breadth. I propose rather to discuss a broader vision towards which could one day lead to the Agreement: regional integration, the creation of an East Asian community. Bound by a growing network of trade and finance, the South East Asia is looking for a common identity that would allow it to transform its economic success, influence policy on the international stage. The creation of the Free Trade Area ASEAN-China part of this long process of convergence. Successful economic integration would be a step closer to creating an East Asian community.
East Asian Community Since the end of the Cold War, two contradictory trends tug at the nation-state: its fragmentation into ethnic groups or its dissolution in favor of larger regional groupings. In East Asia and South-east, the first part of the statement is present. Moro secessionist pressures in the Philippines those of the Uyghurs and Tibetans in China and those from Muslim factions in the south of Thailand demonstrated. On the other hand, the process will confirm the validity of the second part of it has already started. While political union remains a distant hypothesis, the financial crisis, stating the dangers of excessive dependence on U.S. and European markets, Asian elites could lead to a further leap in that direction. Last year, in full Japanese election race is in this light qu'Yukio Hatoyama made regional integration a central theme of his campaign. Now the prime minister, Hatoyama used the full weight of his office to promote the idea.
A matter of trust Establish a reasonable level of trust between actors is the main challenge that lies on the road to integration. For many, the idea of an East Asian community back bad memories. Indeed, there are more than 60 years, with weapons that the Japanese tried to force the creation of "co-prosperity sphere of the Greater East Asia. After the end of the Second World War, the idea naturally disappeared from radar screens in Asia.
must wait until 1990 to see the project re-surface concrete. At the time
, Prime Minister of Malaysia was promoting an East Asian economic community, a proposal that did very little waves. A few years later, the Asian crisis led the country in the region to reconsider the project. The crisis made Asian countries aware of the regional reality that united them. This phenomenon became particularly evident during discussions dealing with the creation of a possible common market that would unite South Korea, China, Japan and ASEAN countries. The idea of establishing an Asian common currency was even raised. The months that followed the crisis brought about the creation of the first summit ASEAN +3 (China, Japan, South Korea), which led to the signing of numerous bilateral agreements to promote regional collaboration in the long term. Since then, the idea kept on rising. Optimistic, ASEAN has set itself the target of the East Asian community be created at the turn of 2015.
time having largely dispelled fears about the hegemonic Japanese, all eyes are now turning to China. The threat is a new form. China does not officially supports more guerrillas armed Southeast Asia since 1978, but now its economic and political weight that threatens to overshadow the smaller regional players. In the South, the problem of asymmetry increasing concern.
China has never been too warm to the idea to cede some sovereignty to a supranational entity. With a population of more than 65% of that of the proposed East Asian community and an area covering 68% of its total area, why should she submit to anyone? Although the size of the economies of China and Japan are comparable, the reality differs: Japan ends up stagnating for several years while China has hardly been affected by the global economic crisis. With economic growth remains above 8% in 2009, China now serves as a lifeline to save the entire region. For China, the proposed community should be incorporated only the ASEAN +3. In decision-making perspective, it is of course not matter to proceed under the logic of a country, one vote. This approach would assure Beijing that any union of Asian economies places China at its center.
Faced with the growing strength of this power requires a redefinition of the balance of power, theories of international relations generally propose two solutions:
"Alone or combined with others, players can endeavor to ensure their security by seeking balance with the emerging power, the return or, if necessary, go to war with her to win. Instead, they can ally with her, agree with it and adopt a secondary or subordinate position vis-à-vis her in the hope of seeing their key interests protected. "
In view of this major dilemma, it seems that the countries of East Asia and South-East have opted for a solution of their own. The game of alliance and containment will be within a cooperative framework. This situation leads to an arm of iron which seeks to determine what form the leadership exercised within the proposed area. The mistrust
...
Japan For Japan, the East Asian community should not be limited to the ASEAN +3, but should include the ASEAN +3 +3 (which includes the name of the country ASEAN +3, adding Australia, New Zealand and India). Having apparently abandoned the idea of playing a hegemonic role in the future region, Japan tries to dilute China's influence. The addition of India and Australia would create a dynamic of multipolarity in which unilateral claims could easily be reversed by simple sets of alliances. In doing so, the weight of second-class players, such as Laos and Cambodia, would be valued, partly resolving the problems of asymmetric feared by many.
Japan is however a prisoner of his past. Since 1945, on foreign policy, diplomacy and defense, Japan is heavily dependent on U.S. policy towards it. For many years Japan has benefited greatly from this alliance. This, however, it is less and less profitable. Just days after taking power, Hatoyama said it wanted to renegotiate the terms of the agreement which binds to United States to orchestrate a reconciliation with Asia. Seeing how zealously Hatoyama busy promoting this organization exclusively Asian, the U.S. reportedly gave the order to their Japanese partner. It was after these events qu'Hatoyama reportedly said, half-word, he did not exclude the possibility of inviting the U.S. to join the organization.
On this statement to America that Beijing spends more energy to show the inadmissibility of the Japanese proposal. Bad faith or reading wrong, the arguments are difficult to balance the Chinese repeated commitments made by qu'Hatoyama result in many Asian official forums where he repeated his desire to see the creation of an East Asian community among ASEAN +3 + 3. Other indications suggest that Japan is now trying to get out of the U.S. orbit, a situation that should lead China to reconsider its case if it wants to counter the Japanese project of ASEAN +3 +3.
For example, last October,
Hatoyama announced that his country would end in the Indian Ocean, its resupply missions of U.S. forces operating in Afghanistan. A few weeks later, Tokyo formalized its intentions to force the 8000 American soldiers stationed in Okinawa to leave the island. The claim was taken very seriously by the White House, who declared that such actions would seriously undermine the alliance between the two countries.
These efforts tend to demonstrate a genuine desire to distance itself against the American power. Of course, if Japan moves away from the United States, not to meet again by another vassal power. China should understand Japanese attempts to counterbalance its power in the future East Asian Community are not a gesture from a servant of the Empire, but rather a country trying to regain a degree of neutrality and independence. Beijing's interest to develop bonds of trust with its former enemy to try to attract the maximum in its orbit rather than playing the card of distrust, which can only indirectly encourage the United States.
ASEAN Perhaps the most surprising in this war of influence that engages members the future East Asian Community has finally Singapore. On November 3, Lee Kuan Yew, former Singapore President and founding father of the Nation, surprised everyone with
About bold. As part of a speech during celebrations marking the 25th anniversary of the creation of "États-Unis/ASEAN Business Council, Lee took everyone by surprise by strongly encouraging the U.S. to remain militarily engaged in Asia to to counterbalance Chinese influence. Whichever is more than one sees as one of the most influential politicians in South Asia-is it would be increasingly difficult to believe that the deployment of the Chinese navy at sea that only China is facing Taiwan. Lee pointed out, for example, that the Chinese fleet could easily be used to seize by force and Paracel Islands Spartly. To make oneself understood, Lee warned the U.S. that they could lose their position as world leader if they do not remain engaged in Asia to balance the military and economic power of China. In a fit of honesty rarely seen in international diplomacy, Lee asserted that "the size of China makes it impossible for the rest of Asia, including Japan and India to counterbalance weight for at least 20 to 30 years. So we need America to redress the balance. "
The importance of such comments should not be taken lightly. Far from representing the views of a single individual, these words should rather be regarded as reflecting aloud fears that several member countries of ASEAN to maintain a low voice. The price for expressing such concerns are too high for many small countries in the region, we can assume these statements are fairly representative of the general mood of the group.
Despite the fact that about Lee not primarily emphasize that military concerns, this does not mean that the economic level, there is harmony. The Southeast Asia is concerned to see its low value added jobs disappear in favor of Chinese factories and on this table, the U.S. can not do anything (or very little). While ideologies are dying, the friends bought, which should eventually greatly benefit China.
Those who feel anxious about the idea of see this new integrated entity would do well to remember history the European Union. Before taking the form we know today, Europe has been through nearly 60 years of turmoil, and his story is far from over. In East Asia, differences in terms of political system, level of economic development and many outstanding historical animosities should make the task even more difficult.
Signs incentives to positivism, however, are numerous. On November 24, Chen Deming, Commerce Minister of China, announced its desire to push the talks for the establishment of a free trade China-Japan-Korea. In 2008, Japan and ASEAN agreed on the creation of a future free trade zone that would unite them, then it's already a done deal between ASEAN and South Korea. As economic integration will intensify in the region, the distance and difficulties that will separate them from the political integration will drop.
Across the Pacific, it is likely that Uncle Sam will try to interfere with the best of his ability in this integration process. Although the U.S. is actually losing influence in the region, they can always count on free trade agreements they have with Korea and Singapore and the early conclusion of the same kind of agreement with Malaysia and Thailand. In addition, the U.S. military ties with Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia and quietly resumed contacts with Indonesia. Finally, APEC and the Trilateral Commission could also help him. But do not forget that before wanting to try to help its partners in Asia, America must first improve its financial situation because it happen to convince anyone if it does not afford.
Charles Hudon, Kunming
