An essay by David Ownby
The future of the planet is now in Chinese hands.
Why?
Firstly because Kyoto does not work very well. Outside the EU, the only "success" achieved are the result of seizures (in Eastern Europe and Russia, among others) who have 'Power Full' local economies for the benefit of weather. Secondly because if Obama would turn the page to assume that the U.S. finally their heavy responsibilities, he is handicapped by the refusal of the conservative opposition to depart from the parochial vision of Bush-Cheney-Palin (and especially its value electoral politics blocking dear to the American right). The proposals, however modest they may be, the U.S. President may find it difficult to leave the Senate. And finally, because China has become, since 2007, the biggest contributor to global warming because of its economy, too hot, and whose main fuel is still coal. This "place of honor," China may keep long which will change the game for everyone.
Since the start of negotiations on the policy to adopt on global warming, China said the same thing: the problem was created by advanced countries, who must first pay the piper; China is a developing country and could not mortgage its future on the basis of a green vision that would serve to perpetuate the relative poverty of its people, China is doing its part already (and still). These arguments, however valid they may be, cease to convince shortly.
Why? Because of the mass of humanity that China and is due to the astonishing speed of its economic development. With an annual growth rate of 8%, the GDP of a country double in 9 years: this is the case of China for nearly 30 years. The Industrial Revolution, performed at the speed of light, has eaten unimaginable quantities of steel, cement, glass, and therefore electricity. In addition, China also saw a transition to urban size, which adds to its urban equivalent of two cities of Boston each month. The new urban housing demand, transportation, heating (or air conditioning), and therefore electricity. In recent years, 3 or 4 new power plants come into work every week China. Each year , China adds to its energy generating capacity to an equivalent capacity in this area of the UK. And it's far from finished! A simple statistic speaks volumes: recently, China is the largest car market in the world gold in 1000 Chinese have only 24 cars (cons 5 of 10 in Europe and 7 out of 10 in the U.S.). True, China will never be as crowded with cars than America or Europe, but imagine the extra CO2 produced if 2 or 3 10 Chinese were found regularly behind the wheel. It would be cooked!
According to forecasts, by 2050 the absolute contribution-in historical terms, China's global warming will exceed that of U.S., Chinese and arguments regarding their responsibilities will take over the road. What is perhaps reassuring, because without new technological breakthroughs, China no longer find her the necessary resources to fuel its future development. China's reserves of coal, among others, will no longer adequate after 2020 or 2030, and China has to import it (from where? The U.S.? Russia?). In other words, for reasons both economic and policy, China will have to sing a toune greener shortly.
In fact, in an ideal world, China trades now positioning itself as global leader on Environmental Matters. As a country halfway between the developed and the developing world, China will necessarily resolve over the coming decades, many thorny problems to be able to continue its economic growth without putting its population-and that of the whole-planet at risk. Through its own experience, China would have the technological knowledge and financial resources needed to help India, Brazil and possibly in Africa, with a view to promote green industrial revolution in the south. Such a strategy would build on the efficiency and know-how from China, and also address the search for an international trademark for the new China, Marxism is outdated and too Chinese Confucianism to operate outside of 'East Asia. And finally, if China assumed a leadership position in this regard, the U.S. would have no choice that follow, which would pave the way for a partnership between the two largest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions.
China Will it measure up? Hard to say. To date, China has been quite reluctant to exercise leadership, even on the geopolitical issues that are important, remember that Pakistan and Afghanistan are neighboring countries, China's gold seems to keep his distance. The exception to this rule seems to be the influence of China on North Korea and Myanmar. Become a leader also called for sacrifices, yet China seems to focus more on its rights its responsibilities as a citizen of the planet. And there is no doubt that it is easier to be Stephen Harper, like an ostrich, or Sarah Palin and how the victim, to behave like an adult and see things in front. Anyway it would be a radical change for the Chinese leadership to address the world as an authority green.
But if not China, who?
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